Will the Internet Overtake Television in 2010?

Microsoft just published a rather thorough report on the future developments of the internet across Europe.  One of the bold predictions they are making is that it won't be long before Internet actually overtakes (traditional) television in terms of media consumption time.

To be precise, they predict it to happen in June 2010.  Whether the actual month is accurate is not that important.  It does show how far the internet has come from the days I first hooked up my 9.6Kbps modem.  In fact, rather than describing "digital" as a separate category, in a few years we may need to consider "non-digital" to be the odd one out.

Some other interesting predictions include that

• internet use on PC's will drop from 95% today, to 50% in five years
• mobile browsing will grow from 19% in 2008 to 30% in 2013
• 28% of Europeans watch short or full length videos online

Interesting times we're living in.

For the full report, have a look at http://www.scribd.com/doc/14065700/Europe-Logs-On

 

Tip of the hat to Kris for pointing me to this one.

TV Producers Need a Business Model to Go Online

This week, two events caught my attention which are not that significant on their own, yet in combination made me think.  First there was CBS Corp's Chief Exec who complained that his viewers were not 'helping the networks' when it comes to pretending they actually watch the advertisements.

Then, the Lonelygirl crowd launched its new show "Kate Modern".  This time the action is in London and we're looking at multiple characters, outside locations and plot twists and hints which promise to be in line with any British light drama series.  Only as it's backed by bebo.com, there is no TV station in sight.

But in spite of the millions of video-watching consumers online, there are few Lonelygirls who truly stand out.  And when they do, they work on a very tight budget, often linked to the limit on their credit card.

The reason for this is obvious.  Even though online projects attract audiences which can rival mid-range TV shows, they are dispersed across various geographies and demographics while the marketing budgets to support them are still organized by country and segment.  In short, they may get the numbers as a whole, yet these don't square with the way media-buyers make most of their money.

The end result is a world where TV stations are running out of audiences to pay for big productions, while the long tail online makes audiences too fragmented to go beyond bedroom production value.

So I wonder when new business models will emerge that fundamentally change this equation.  When will global brands simply finance high production quality online shows for international markets, series and movies (the last ones I really enjoyed date from 2001/2).   When will fan-financing generate sufficient cash to support real productions (I still dream of bringing back a sequel to Fawlty Towers in which Basil gets to run a Canadian airline)?  When will portals and ISPs start with some "real" production projects?

Especially if you consider that international production costs are considerably lower than those in the US, this should be feasible.  After all, for the price of one sitcom in the US, you can almost produce a series in Europe and half a station's worth of content in India or China.  Also, if you give production teams like the one behind LonelyGirl a million they'd probably give you the moon in return.

The tools, creativity and audiences are there.  All that's needed is a business model that turns the next YouTube into a high production value machine.

I wonder who plays first?

Philips: Setting the Record Straight

Sentiments have been running a bit high about Philips' alledged plan to "force" us all to watch advertisements whether we like it or not.  According to Catharine Taylor at Adweek we can all calm down as the consumer electronics firm is going around the blogosphere to set the record straight (we didn't get it, yet I guess we're not on their blogroll :-)

Inventors from Royal Philips Electronics (Philips) filed a patent application, as yet not granted, that enables watching a television movie without advertising. However, some people do want to see the ads. So, we developed a system where the viewer can choose, at the beginning of a movie, to either watch the movie without ads, or watch the movie with ads. It is up to the viewer to take this decision, and up to the broadcaster to offer the various services. Philips never had the intention to force viewers to watch ads against their will and does not use this technology in any current Philips products, nor do we have any plans to do so.

ABC 'Almost' Getting it Right?

According to this article and video on CNN, the Disney subsidiary ABC Television in the US is planning to start offering hit shows like Alias, Lost and Desperate Housewives for free on the internet the day they have aired on TV.  The plan is to finance this operation through non-skippable advertisements which are sold to the likes of P&G, Ford, AT&T etcetera.

The experiment, which will run over May and June will be a first in which ABC essentially makes a bid to upstage newcomers like Google, Yahoo and iTunes which it will retain as customers for these shows, yet essentially tries and box into a pay-per-view model.

While I applaud the bold move, it does remain a pity that ABC does stick to the orthodoxy of following the "intrusion model" for advertising, while there could have been so many other ways to monetize this content.  

By now it's been abundently proven that the actual effectiveness of these regular TV clips is negligeable, so my guess is consumers online will just tolerate them as it gets them the show for free, yet not really engage with the branded messages online.  This will lead to many advertisers simply being offered a new way to waste their money while consumers go to the bathroom.

But then again, one step at a time, and kudos to ABC for being the first to take this step!

I Want Kiefer's Phone

Even if you're someone like me who only watches TV when renting the series DVD, it's hard to escape the product placement which is re-appearing in TV shows these days.  Just think of the innovative way 24 seperated the good guys (using Apple) from the bad guys (using, well ... you know).

So far, nothing new, as P&G has pioneered this type of placement decades ago.  Still, when it becomes really cool is when you combine these product placements with commerce opportunities on interactive TV. 

Interactive TV technology provider Goldpocket has announced technology which makes it relatively easy to enable viewers to actually point to that cool Apple or Samsung phone their favourite filmstar is using, review its features, and "click to buy".

OK, there will still be this small issue of sorting out the payment streams and delivery systems for shows which get rolled out globally, yet as a concept, this could turn TV into an interesting direct sales & distribution channel.